Uncertainty in the roadmaps

Eastern North Atlantic remains relatively cloud-free.  Thats good – we need some clear ocean color imagery.  We are quickly learning that every region appears to have its own best combination of data sources for path planning, and it probably varies by season.

The Sea Surface temperature imagery reveals some of the features, but nothing is distinct.  In a few places Hycom circulation vectors (white) agree with the features in the SST, but again, there is little that stands out.

Same conclusion comparing hycom to altimetry.  Agreement in some places, disagrement in others.  The main agreement seems to be that currents are generally small, and therefore hard to detect in the data and assimilate into the forecast model. 

Our best comparisions continue to be with the altimeter’s geostrophic currents and the advection of the phytoplankton in the ocean color imagery.  Based on that comparision from the end of last week, we’ll continue to use the altimetry as our roadmap and continue east across the base of the cold eddy, using its counterclockwise circulation to push us east.  We’ll also work more on tuning the flight parameters today, a process that is becoming more and more continuous over time. We had a bad segment with 7 spins yesterday, then this morning a good segment with only 1 spin.   It remains random, as best we can tell so far, and heightens the uncertainty.